仿真误区2：Leaving analysis for the end

focuscon

Deborah A. Sadowski ，Mark R. Grabau
1 m& Q+ c; J/ o: T! |8 ]$ ]$ h& HThere's a common misconception that performing a simulation study involves a sequence of steps (e.g., project definition, model formulation, verification, validation, analysis). To the contrary, all elements of a simulation project should be performed repeatedly throughout the effort,
6 f) f, U. g& ?8 l- L5 d5 lgrowing in scope as the model progresses.  
, p1 O$ S) d) b$ P, C! i$ u( `' LIn the traditional view, projects suffer from too strong a focus on the model (and perhaps the animation), so that after the inevitable delays and problems, there's no time left to run scenarios. Instead, the analyst is faced with a presentation deadline that's firm and little time to experi-
ment, analyze, or think.
Instead, you should schedule the project in complete phases. Intermediate milestones, spaced no more than about two weeks apart in a medium to large project, should include specific goals for the model, animation, data, and analysis. By the time you reach the last 25% of your time on the project, you should have addressed the basic analysis issues of run length, warm-up time, etc. and should already have performed preliminary analysis on the model for a number of different scenarios.